On Friday (December 6) during the New York session, the price of gold fell sharply. Spot gold once fell more than $ 20 from its daily high, refreshing a nearly four-day low to $ 1,458.78 per ounce; the market was recharged due to strong US employment data Note that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, while also boosting demand for higher-risk assets; coupled with the market’s optimistic expectations of the progress of trade agreements, it is difficult for gold to sustain the recent rise.
Data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 266,000 in November, far exceeding market expectations, and the largest increase since January, confirming that the economy is still on a moderate expansion track despite the continued downturn in manufacturing.
After the release of non-agricultural data, the CME “Fed Watch” shows that the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate in the range of 1.50% -1.75% in December is 99.3%, the probability of a 25 basis point reduction is 0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point increase It is 0.7%; the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in the range of 1.50% -1.75% by January next year is 90.5%, the probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points is 8.8%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0.7%.
Employment data pushed up the US dollar, the US stock market rose, and strong economic data also increased market optimism, which greatly weakened demand for safe-haven products such as gold. Phil Streible, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that the employment report “is a figure that speaks volumes, meaning there will be no more interest rate cuts and it will be bearish for gold.
The gold market trend is still uncertain and difficult to determine. Gold prices are currently consolidating, waiting for opportunities. If there are new changes in trade issues, the price of gold will surge. Otherwise, the price of gold will continue to consolidate before the end of the year.
Looking ahead, the market focus will be on the Fed’s meetings next Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed is expected to maintain its target range of interest rate indicators at 1.50% -1.75%.